Taking It in the Arm

Plucky Brits lined up today to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination against Covid-19 disease. It won’t make recipients immune, it won’t prevent them being asymptomatic spreaders. It will reduce their suffering if they become infected and some may not die from the disease. Time will tell how many will be killed by this or any other Covid vaccine.

The Sputnik 5 vaccine was “rushed out to wary Russians” three days ago. The BBC hasn’t forgiven Vladimir Vladimirovich for not poisoning the Skripals beyond all doubt, (it was just “highly likely”), and one of its journalists reporting from Moscow on Sunday couldn’t help getting a few digs in. She signed off saying that infections in Russia were “rising rapidly”. This may be true but it is dead people who matter when talking about Covid – and Russia has a long way to go to catch up with UK-level fatalities.

The UK “Second Wave” of Covid Deaths began (I decided) on 22 September but the rising number of fatalities took a while to impact the curve. Russia’s rise in Covid fatalities as a percentage of deaths from All Causes is noticeable but not pronounced.

A histogram of the UK’s two Covid Waves shows that the Second appears to have peaked in Week 10. In past “normal years”, the old flu would be preparing to make an entrance now, so it will be interesting to see if its victims are ascribed to the new kid on the block, presenting us with a Third Covid Wave that carries us beyond the 17 week duration of the First.

What difference will the vaccines make?

Measure of Man 48 · Country Park