Winter Heat, Summer Chill

BBC Radio 4 News woke me this morning with the three top stories being about Climate Change. Not surprising, perhaps, when the guest editor of the Today Programme is Marmite Greta. (Disclosure: I love Greta.)

Four weeks into the new Meteorological Year and things are shaping up in interesting and surprising ways.

Last year ended with my five northern weather stations averaging a Mean Temperature of 1.08°C above Pre-Industrial, and the southern five 1.31 degrees. To bring my Pre-Industrial Baseline into closer alignment with that of the IPCC, I have added 0.15°C to these figures, recalculating my 10 stations “Globe” to an annual Mean of 1.35 degrees above P-I.

Australia has been receiving a lot of attention recently, because of the bushfires, and for a day or two, it was clearly the hottest place on earth. Another wave of heat is expected to roll in this week but Sydney’s running average of daily mean temperatures is currently lower this year than last. It is 1.17°C above P-I compared to the (revised) year-end 1.47 degrees.

Three other southern stations are running cooler than last year. Only Buenos Aires is warmer than at the same stage last year but only 0.48°C above P-I. Comparing this to the IPCC’s Projection to 1.5°C above P-I in 2040 yields a Warming Rate of minus 27. (After four weeks last year it was minus 85.)

It will take more than a month for temperature “patterns” to become settled. Daily variability anywhere on the earth’s surface can be huge. On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, Koltsovo was 20 degrees centigrade warmer this year than last. Yekaterinburg is currently experiencing temperatures at 6.8°C above P-I. This equates to a Warming Rate 264 times higher than the IPC Projection. It isn’t sensible to compare the monthly change at just one place with the IPCC’s global monthly projection but, just for a lark, Koltsovo is currently warming 3,229 times faster than the whole world is expected to this month. But this rate could fall to a negative figure in a matter of weeks – especially when (if) the Grand Solar Minimum bites.

For now, only Washington DC is running cold in my northern hemisphere of five stations. It ended last year at 1.51°C above P-I and is currently 0.14 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial. Rome is 3.3° above, Mumbai 2.99 and Shanghai 3.54.

One can boil the ten-station temperature data into any number of different graphs and charts but here are a couple for the infant northern winter and southern summer.

Wk4_MEANcfP-I_NSG

Wk4_MEANcfLastYr_NSG

Don’t be panicked by these graphs. My mini globe’s warming by 0.8 degrees C in four weeks, when the IPCC posits 0.5 degrees in 23 years, is obviously survivable – and subject to change. For now, though, it seems our world has turned upside down with the north being (relatively) warmer compared to last year and the south cooler.

Today’s Image…

…is rather frosty, as was yesterday’s. On 28 December 2016 the low temperature at Whitby was 0.6°C, and 6.23 degrees warmer than that this year. The low at Durham Tees a couple of days ago was a bit higher than Whitby, at 7.22 centigrade. Parts of the UK in the current “unseasonably warm” spell could reach a high of 16°C. The running average Mean for this month in Durham Tees is 2.07°C above P-I. At the same time last year it was 1.28, quite a drop from the first week’s 2.78 above.

Climate Change

from the BBC today:-

Mark Carney

Greta & Sir David

Australia

Massive Attack

Moscow