Warmth

The UK is experiencing near-record December temperatures and the 10-Day Hourly Forecast Map on Climate Reanalyzer shows the warmth is shared by most of Europe. At noon on New Year’s Day…

Four weeks into the 2021/22 Meteorological Year, the Weather Station at Ciampino (Rome) indicates Daily Mean Temperatures are running 12 times higher than the IPCC’s projection to a Global 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040. Rome is 1.35 degrees above P-I and North East England (Durham Tees) 0.2 degrees warmer still. Top of the charts of Ten Stations I monitor is Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg), 5°C above Pre-Industrial and currently warming 182 times faster than the IPCC suggests is unhealthy.

Below are two tables for Week 4 showing the Average Warming Rate for the years 2017/18 to 2020/21 and this year’s figures.

Signs, perhaps, that the Solar Minimum has its eye on the Southern Hemisphere.

(Data gathered from Weather Underground.)

Measure of Man 69 · Rocket Pole

Geograph

My Climate

Durham Tees Airport is about 70 miles from Filey but closer Stations providing data to Weather Underground became unreliable after a while.

In the beginning I arrived at a Pre-Industrial baseline by averaging ten meteorological years of daily mean temperatures (2008/9 to 2017/8) and adding 0.85°C – on the assumption that a global rise of this amount could be reasonably applied. In 2018 the IPCC declared that Earth had warmed by 1°C between the start of the Industrial Revolution and 2017, so I altered my spreadsheets “to fit”. Yesterday, I menioned my wheeze of an “IPCC Unit” – the amount the temperature must rise annually to the end of November 2040 to reach the “Paris Target” of 1.5 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Ignoring pesky 366th days gives a daily rise of 0.0000596°C. By the end of Week 46 of this meteorological year my version of the globe has therefore notionally warmed to 1.08442 degrees above Pre-Industrial.

Three days ago Durham Tees was running at 1.77°C above P-I. At the beginning of summer  (Week 26) this figure was just 1.06°C. Last year, summer began at 2.34°C above P-I and cooled to 1.8 degrees.

In 2014 it was warmer still at Week 46, reaching the dreaded 2°C. To be more exact,1.997 degrees, and rising further to 2.05°C by the year’s end. Fortunately, there have been enough cool years since 2008 to bring the above Pre-Industrial average down to a comfortable level.

Accepting a one degree above P-I figure for all  years from 2008 to 2017, and then going with my interpretation of the steady rise to the IPCC’s 2040 projection gives the following graph.

Two calculations –

1.7711-1.08442÷0.02174=31.6

1.132-1.08442÷0.02174=2.2

So, this meteorological year is currently running31.6 times warmer than the IPCC projection.

But if 14 years of Warming are averaged the Rate falls to just 2.2. Nothing to see in North East England then. Hot air blowing down from Glasgow in a couple of weeks can be ignored. There are too many other things to worry about.

Townscape 73 · Queen Street