Hot Washington

Washington DC was not the warmest of the Ten Stations last week. It was beaten by Cape Town.

43_FullTable

The wintry blast experienced by Koltsovo saw that station fall from second to fourth in “the League”, with Wellington and Washington moving up to second and third respectively. Rio had a chilly week, the Year to Date Mean Temperature falling 0.06ºC to 1.8 degrees above Pre-Industrial. The GFS model’s forecast of warmth in Argentina came good, with Buenos Aires high in the week’s table at 2.65ºC above P-I.

Durham Tees (my “local” station) was also a bit toasty in Week 43.

wk43_WashingtoDCcombo

The Washington trendline is almost flat, falling slightly to an indicated year-end temperature of 1.58ºC above Pre-Industrial – in orange “above Paris” territory. To meet this forecast, the temperature must rise 0.08 degrees from the end of August figure. Infinitesimal, which is one reason I’m experimenting with the percentage graphs.

Wk43_WashDCnorthTREND

 

Four Northern Hemisphere stations were in the bottom half of the Week 43 Table and they cancelled out the Washington warmth. (Mumbai is the only one of these four expected to be warmer at the end of the Met Year than now.)

Impressed by the GFS model’s Buenos Aires prediction last week, I’ve looked at the coming seven days for the Ten Stations. It is only a rough assessment but I’m going to wager that Koltsovo, Washington and Sydney will occupy the top three positions in the Week 44 Table.

All but one of the storms mentioned last week seem to have weakened without causing too much misery anywhere. The Earth Wind Map is currently showing a festering boil mid-way between Africa and the Americas.

20190929_EarthWindMap

Lorenzo – “the Atlantic’s second Cat 5 storm of the year, the strongest hurricane ever observed so far east in the Atlantic, and one of the northernmost Cat 5s on record.” Weather Underground.

 

Northern Winter

It was 56 years ago, or thereabouts when a “new” maths teacher sat with me for some one-to-one tuition. After a few minutes, he told me what I already knew – I had no facility with figures. Mr Gibbins inspired me, though; I knuckled down. I’m sure he would have been amused had he known I got a job in a government department of statistics.

Anyway, the provisional temperature figures from my Ten Weather Stations are in. I don’t think, dear reader, that you will appreciate it if I throw too many at you, all at once. They tell a load of stories but  I’ll try to follow a moderation in all things strategy.

My original intention was to see if I could get an early warning of the onset of the promised Grand Solar Minimum – or of the sudden increase in temperature because of a threatened release of Arctic methane (from melting permafrost). The first three months of the current meteorological year don’t seem to point in either direction, definitively.

Yesterday, my YouTube recommendations included this video from Veritasium. It is quite short and, I thought, an excellent introduction to the uncertainties of Climate Change/Global Warming. I hope you will watch it.

Very briefly, I have copied the daily AVERAGE temperatures for Ten Weather Stations for the ten meteorological years from December 2008 to November 2018. For simplicity, I give each year the “name” of the 11-month year, viz 2009 to 2018, rather than 2008/9 to 2017/18 Averaging ten years of AVERAGE temperatures gave a ten-year baseline which enabled me to determine where warming has brought us since the start of the Industrial Age.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other organizations tell us that temperatures have risen n degrees since “Pre-Industrial” (or some more recent baseline of their devising). I have decided it is pointless agonising over which baseline and which temperature rise to choose.

I’ve settled for a rise of 0.85°C since 1710. I mentioned in an earlier post that I thought this was “conservative” and heard someone offer a one degree C rise since 1850 a few days ago. Really, any reasonable “ballpark” figure will do, as long is it is rigorously applied to all the weather stations in the project.

I have calculated the pre-industrial baseline figure for each day of the year for the ten stations and for this first quarter of the meteorological year deducted the actual daily AVERAGE temperatures reported to Weather Underground.

Given the nature of the 2009 to 2018 baseline, one would expect temperatures for any day in 2019 to have a 50% chance (roughly) of being warmer. And, given the variability of our weather, the difference could be many degrees warmer (or colder). Averaging the AVERAGE daily temperatures for a whole month and comparing the result with the average for the 10-year baseline will reduce the difference – but it still might be more extreme than you’d expect. Averaging the three months of the Northern Winter and Southern Summer will reduce the monthly differences further.

And, thinking ahead, averaging the AVERAGE daily temperatures for the whole meteorological year will yield an annual figure that can be set against a statement such as, “The average global temperature has increased by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution”.

So, how have my 5 northern stations fared this winter compared to the 0.85°C above Pre-Industrial of 2009 to 2018?

NorthWinterAboveP-I

A note on the colour coding in the first column.

BLUE: below the Pre-Industrial Baseline!

GREEN: between 0 to 1.49°C above Pre-Industrial.

ORANGE: above the Paris Accord but below 2°C.

RED: 2°C and more above Pre-Industrial.

The amount of warming and cooling this quarter is indicated in the second column.

Novosibirsk is the coldest of the five locations but, given the brutality of the Polar Vortex in North America, the Washington DC result is more surprising. As I said, these figures are provisional. I’ll check!