My Climate

Durham Tees Airport is about 70 miles from Filey but closer Stations providing data to Weather Underground became unreliable after a while.

In the beginning I arrived at a Pre-Industrial baseline by averaging ten meteorological years of daily mean temperatures (2008/9 to 2017/8) and adding 0.85°C – on the assumption that a global rise of this amount could be reasonably applied. In 2018 the IPCC declared that Earth had warmed by 1°C between the start of the Industrial Revolution and 2017, so I altered my spreadsheets “to fit”. Yesterday, I menioned my wheeze of an “IPCC Unit” – the amount the temperature must rise annually to the end of November 2040 to reach the “Paris Target” of 1.5 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Ignoring pesky 366th days gives a daily rise of 0.0000596°C. By the end of Week 46 of this meteorological year my version of the globe has therefore notionally warmed to 1.08442 degrees above Pre-Industrial.

Three days ago Durham Tees was running at 1.77°C above P-I. At the beginning of summer  (Week 26) this figure was just 1.06°C. Last year, summer began at 2.34°C above P-I and cooled to 1.8 degrees.

In 2014 it was warmer still at Week 46, reaching the dreaded 2°C. To be more exact,1.997 degrees, and rising further to 2.05°C by the year’s end. Fortunately, there have been enough cool years since 2008 to bring the above Pre-Industrial average down to a comfortable level.

Accepting a one degree above P-I figure for all  years from 2008 to 2017, and then going with my interpretation of the steady rise to the IPCC’s 2040 projection gives the following graph.

Two calculations –

1.7711-1.08442÷0.02174=31.6

1.132-1.08442÷0.02174=2.2

So, this meteorological year is currently running31.6 times warmer than the IPCC projection.

But if 14 years of Warming are averaged the Rate falls to just 2.2. Nothing to see in North East England then. Hot air blowing down from Glasgow in a couple of weeks can be ignored. There are too many other things to worry about.

Townscape 73 · Queen Street

An Exceptional April

England hasn’t had such a cold April for almost a hundred years, and I think Scotland was chillier last month than at any time “since records began”. The Met Office serves up sunshine and precipitation figures with UK temperatures here.

Durham Tees weather station posted a month mean a couple of degrees centigrade above the UK April average – mainly because it didn’t share Scotland’s experience. It was 2.7°C colder than the 2009 to 2020 average minimum and so accords with the Met Office’s anomaly map for the four nations. But 2021 wasn’t the coldest April of the thirteen years for which I have data. 2012 was 0.68 degrees cooler. All that sunshine last month had an impact after the frosty early mornings.

April, though, is the fifth month of the meteorological year and the running mean from the first of December, in the guise of Temperature Above Pre-Industrial, reveals Durham Tees is quite a bit warmer in 2021 than the IPCC Paris Accord projection. There has been a 0.2°C fall in the month but at 1.42°C above Pre-Industrial on the 30th, Durham Tees is 0.34 degrees warmer than it should be if the 2040 Paris limit is not to be breached. Those trendlines in the graph above are misleading.

Below is a graph indicating April’s mean temperatures above/below Pre-Industrial from 2009 to 2021. Most years are “grayed out” to avoid confusion. Only the warmest and coolest years at the end of April are highlighted, with 2021 emphasized. The average Temperature above Pre-Industrial for the 13 years (2009 to 2021) is 1.17°C. This is about 0.1 degrees above the IPCC projection indicating a warming rate four times greater than expected. 2021 is currently running about sixteen times warmer than the IPCC’s projection (offered in 2017). Not to worry. The Grand Solar Minimum/Little Ice Age is on the way.

Insect 30 · Sea Slater

Ligia oceanica, Filey Sands