Did He Drown?

Kath asks the question regarding Edward COWLING in a note on Filey Genealogy & Connections. Edward is remembered on the headstone of his son, John William, who perished after being swept from the coble Concord, (see last Tuesday’s post).

Edward died at the age of 62 on 22 February 1895, whilst line fishing from the Whitby ketch Princess Royal (WY40). It seems, though, that he was taken ill and brought quickly ashore, where the cause of his death was given as “bronchitis”. He was buried in St Oswald’s churchyard on the 24th.

Edward on FamilySearch Tree.

Ten Station Weather, Week 27

27_Table1

A curious week in which two stations that have warmed considerably so far this year, Koltsovo and Sydney, returned mean temperatures below Pre-Industrial. And the coolest southern hemisphere station to date, Buenos Aires, topped the chart at 4.13 above P-I.

This week’s twins are Washington and Cape Town. Both stations show a warming trend over the past five weeks, though Washington’s is minimal. Some welcome warmth has come to north-east England – and it shows in the Durham Tees trendline.

The southern hemisphere stations are significantly warmer (as a collective), but the 5-week trend below the equator is nonetheless towards cooling.

With a mean temperature of 0.85 above Pre-Industrial, Durham Tees is, perhaps for one week only, exactly as warm as the 10 Year average. Which way will the year go from here?

5weekPanel_2327

27_Table2

December Hot and Cold

I copied and pasted December average temperatures for ten weather stations from Weather Underground, for the years 2008 to 2018. (The link takes you to the Beijing Capital Station for December 2018. You may be interested in having a look round the website, perhaps for a weather station close to where you live.)

The 10 years 2008 to 2017 provided a baseline and deducting 1.1°F (0.6°C)  from the figure for each station gives serviceable pre-industrial baselines that may be considered distant cousins to the IPCC’s Global Annual pre-industrial baseline.

The Ten Station December pre-industrial baselines were then deducted from the actual December 2018 figures to give an Above or Below Pre-Industrial result. For Earth as a whole (and on an annual basis) we are told that Anthropogenic Global Warming has pushed temperatures to, roughly, 0.6 to 1.0°C. It may be a surprise to see December Temperatures at three stations colder than they may have been before 1750, or warmer than the Paris Accord’s hopeful upper limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial.

Canary isn’t interested in “actual figures”. She is only concerned about detecting significant warming OR cooling over the next couple of years. My chosen early warning system involves monitoring the number of days each month that the Average Temperature at the Ten Stations falls below Pre-industrial or rises above the Paris 1.5 degrees C. (Given the wide range of average daily temperatures it is not really surprising that only a few days a month fall between the calculated pre-industrial baseline and 1.5 degrees Paris target.)

Here is part of an Excel spreadsheet that shows just the two Pre-industrial figures for each station.

Dec2018PreInd

When January’s figures are in I can begin “joining the dots” and by the end of the meteorological year 2018/19, a pattern may have emerged that will indicate whether we humans will starve whilst baking or freezing.

(Eleven Year histograms show a modest warming trend for nine of my chosen stations. Only Mumbai has gone, immodestly, the other way.)

MUMBAI_11yrDEC

I watched a couple of YouTube videos yesterday. It is important, I think, to consider both sides, even if you don’t believe one of them.

Ice Age Farmer

The Scott Adams Climate Challenge