Northern Spring, Southern Autumn

Two of my five northern hemisphere weather stations (Mumbai and Washington DC) showed a warming trend this Spring but only one southern station (Sydney) cooled as Autumn progressed.

The northern spring began with a burst of warmth, whilst the southern autumn experienced a cold start. Roles reversed in May with the north decidedly chilly and the south unseasonably warm. The effect on the meteorological year’s second quarter Chart is clear to see.

NHspringSHautumnMean

At the end of the second quarter, the Ten Stations averaged 1.24℃ above Pre-Industrial. As my interpretation of Pre-Industrial is 0.85℃ above the Ten Year average for the stations (2008/9 to 2017/18), Spring/Autumn this year was 0.39℃ warmer than the previous decade average. Note, the north broke through the Paris Accord limit on seven days and the south will reach 1.5℃ soon unless there’s a change in the weather.

With the 10 Stations combined showing a warming trend, it seems fair to suggest the Grand Solar Minimum hasn’t kicked in yet.

In India, daily maximum temperatures have risen above 50℃ in places recently. Arctic sea ice is melting early but heavy May snowfalls in the north have mocked “global warmists”. So much rain has fallen in the United States that millions of acres will not be planted at all this year. Expect news of food shortages and food price rises.

The koala bear is now “functionally extinct”. The critters have been around for 200 million years. Wise apes have taken just a few hundred years to ensure their demise, sometime soon.

What Desmond Morris used to call “Manwatching” (now, I suppose, “Person watching”) continues to be an entertaining pastime. Lucy Brown is an accomplished observer and recorder of persons. Her vision of the recent Trump Protest in London indicates that humans may swiftly follow koalas into oblivion.

Insufficient Rebellion

I have been crunching temperature data for the last couple of days and drafting a post with a provisional title, This Sporting Weather. Temperature tables that mimic those of football teams in premier leagues might be of some interest, I thought.

Nineteen weeks into the season (meteorological year 2018/19), the contenders for the title of Warmest Place in my Ten Team Weather League have settled to such an extent that it will be a surprise if the current leader is overtaken.

Koltsovo (Novosibirsk) will be a worthy winner. As noted in an earlier post, it is the coldest of the ten stations I’m monitoring, but returning the greatest increase of average daily temperature above my chosen Pre-Industrial Baseline. It is also notable for being located in one of Climate Action Tracker’s Critically Insufficient countries.

After the first week of matches, Koltsovo was third in the table but went top the following week and has remained there until now.

Buenos Aires and Mumbai have been fighting it out for weeks for the privilege of propping up the table. (But remember, Cold is Good.) At week 19, Mumbai is bottom and this is appropriate too because India is the only one of my ten representative countries that CAT classifies as 2°C Compatible. (Buenos Aires is clearly overperforming because Argentina is considered to be ‘Highly Insufficient’.)

The other seven stations have jostled a bit for a few weeks but their positions are unlikely to change much from now to the end of the year. Last week all ten occupied the positions they held the previous week.

Met18TablePos

A station receives ten points for being Warmest of the Week, down to one point for Coldest (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline).

Met18TableTEMP

The temperature colour codes (°C) should be self-explanatory with green and blue together equating to CAT’s ‘1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible’ classification.

Italy is the only country of my ten not judged by CAT. At week 19, Rome’s running Mean daily temperature is 0.77°C above Pre-Industrial and so could be Paris Compatible. The next table shows the current Mean temperatures for the year to date, (running averages).

Met19TableTempRUN

The Ten Station average, a rough proxy for “Global”, is 0.35°C above the temperature the planet has warmed since “Pre-Industrial”. This could be an indication that the 0.85°C data point I estimated for this increase is ‘insufficient’.

Now for some Rebellion.

Just Have a Think #50 puts climate-induced civil disobedience into context and gives more information about the Action Tracker.

Radio news today briefly tells of a hundred or more rebels being arrested.  I hope the inconvenience they are causing thousands in London will make people think about the extinction of all life on Earth. Sadly, judging by the amount of air time devoted today, people will be far more exercised about the fire in a cathedral. Perhaps a whole planet burning up is too much to take on board.

Weather is trying to tell us something by continuing to play dirty. One of its worst fouls recently – Arctic sea ice extent is at a record low, according to some observers.

AprilArcticSeaIce
Grabbed from Seamorerocks

Innocently Violent, a 56-minute climate change documentary, appeared in my YT recommendations a few days ago – practical self-sufficiency near the edge of extinction. Not for everyone but I was warmed by it!

Cool Runnings

In March, the warmest of my five Northern Hemisphere weather stations, Chhatrapati Shivaji International (Mumbai), recorded an average mean daily temperature of 27.71°C. The coldest station, Koltsovo, returned minus 1.88°C.

You may recall that I calculated a 10 Year Daily Average temperature for all ten weather stations using Weather Underground data for meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18. These daily figures can be readily aggregated to give weekly, monthly and seasonal averages, and finally annual results.

After some consideration, I decided that global temperature had risen by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – when mankind began emitting way more “greenhouse gases” into the air than before. It doesn’t really matter when industrial activity took off. I think I pinned it to 1709 or thereabouts. Neither is the 0.85°C figure critical. I recently heard a scientist acknowledge a rise of 1.0°C since 1880 – and he was from the school of carbon dioxide being “plant food”, playing no part whatsoever in the temperature rise. (See Jeff Masters for a different view of CO2.)

2019MARCHcf10yrWhatever, Mumbai last month recorded the greatest amount of cooling when compared to its 10 Year Average. And cold Koltsovo warmed the most. Go figure.

Now, please consider the Paris Agreement (or Accord) and add 0.85 degrees to the table figures. Quite by chance, the Northern Hemisphere is bang on the 1.5°C “red line” we should strive not to cross. And Koltsovo is beyond twice as hot as the 2°C figure that signifies the beginning of the end for humanity. It is fortunate that Koltsovo isn’t the globe.

For the following histogram, I have ordered the ten stations, hemispheres and globe so that March progresses from cool to warm when compared with the Pre-Industrial Baseline.

 

2019MARCHcfP-I

So, what has happened to Koltsovo since the beginning of this meteorological year? At the end of winter, the average daily MEAN temperature was 2.2°C above Pre-Industrial. March warmth has pushed the Koltsovo running average up to 2.75°C (2.34°C warmer than at the end of December) and nudged the Northern Hemisphere up from just 0.1°C warming since December 31st to 0.2 degrees. (Mumbai, Rome, Shanghai and Washington all conspired to bring down the North’s fever.)

Mainly thanks to a hot January in Rio, Sydney and Wellington, the Southern Hemisphere is currently at 0.32°C above Pre-Industrial and the Globe at +0.26 degrees.

There is nothing to fear. This meteorological year had a one in two chance of being warmer than the 10 Year Average. Four months in, it is warmer. By the end of November, it could well be cooler.

Anomalous warmth at the beginning of the met year in several of the 10 stations has guaranteed that both hemispheres are now showing a cooling trend. It is very small, only minus 0.01°C every two or three weeks (in the last two months or so).

There are, however, some worryingly hot spots on the planet – India (though not Mumbai) and the Arctic.

This is today’s picture of Arctic temperature anomalies from Climate Reanalyzer. Over the next ten days, the excess heat is forecast to drop from +6.8°C to +3.4°C.

April3_ArcticAnomaly_CR_grab

 

Brexit

Good luck to Ukraine if they vote in a Comedian President. The UK has over 600 jokers in Parliament, all risible and none funny. The Prime Minister of the regime and the “Leader” of the main opposition party are too daft to laugh at. I can’t say it better than Jeff Taylor and Carl Benjamin.

 

Changing Stations

A couple of the ten Weather Stations I have been monitoring have been renamed – but their data continue to be reported. Beijing Capital, though, seems to have ‘gone dark’ and a couple of other stations in the city don’t have historical data back to December 2008. I’ve had to fly south to Shanghai to acquire replacement figures.

Shanghai experienced the same warm start to the meteorological year as Beijing and suffered the first of the big freezes. But it ended the season ‘above Paris’ (1.57°C) whereas Beijing had increased just 0.01 degree above the estimated 0.85°C rise since the Industrial Age began.

Beijing&ShanghaiWinter

I’ll report on the first month of the Northern Spring and Southern Autumn in a few days time. Solar Minimumists are reporting that the Little Ice Age is definitely underway but my Ten Weather Stations are not yet feeling a persistent chill. Arctic amplification, on the other hand, is in overdrive at the moment with temperatures well above normal in Alaska.

Koltsovo Station

I wrote yesterday that this was the warmest of my ten stations. It was actually the coldest – but I had its temperature anomaly in mind. On six days last month, the average temperature was over 10°C above the Pre-Industrial baseline. It is also the station with the greatest fluctuations of temperature from one day to the next.

KoltsovoJAN2019

Here’s a graph of Sydney data (Kingsford Smith station) for comparison.

SydneyJAN2019

Last month was Australia’s hottest January for over a hundred years, “and there is no relief in sight for the months ahead”.

Still Getting Warmer

In the first two months of this meteorological year at my ten chosen weather stations, there were six instances of cooler temperatures and 14 warmer.

The five Northern Hemisphere Stations were, overall, 1.01°C warmer than the Ten Year Average (2008/9 to 20017/18).

The five Southern Hemisphere Stations were 1.18°C warmer.

“The literature” about present temperatures suggests varying amounts of global warmth above a notional Pre-Industrial Baseline. Initially, I was going to go for a low estimate (0.6°C) but decided on the middling 0.85°C instead.  NASA is currently suggesting the world has warmed 0.9°C since 1880 so I am being conservative.

So, I have set my Pre-industrial Baseline at 0.85°C above the TenYear Average. The figure is calculated daily for graphing purposes. I have added 1.5°C to give the Paris Accord limit we should attempt to stay below if we are to avoid even more extreme weather events than those recently experienced.

At the 10 Weather Stations in the last two months, the Average Daily Temperatures are 0.25°C above the 10 Year running average figure, leaving us just 0.4°C “to play with” before the Paris Accord limit is passed.

There is no way of telling how representative my chosen Weather Stations are, among the thousands reporting to Weather Underground. It doesn’t seem to matter though. Over the next year or two, the trend to either “runaway greenhouse” or Grand Solar Minimum chill must, surely, become apparent.

Right now the record cold temperatures in the US Midwest are causing a stir. The extreme warming that is forecast to soon follow there will keep tongues wagging. In the southern hemisphere, Australia’s heatwaves are crossing the Tasman and washing over New Zealand.

The warmest of my 10 Stations was Koltsovo, last month, registering 3.65°C above Pre-Industrial. If the Siberian experience is replicated everywhere for a whole year we are all toast.

NorthHemDecJan

SouthernHemDecJan

GlobalDecJan

Getting Colder

pd_WYKEthos_FrostFair
Frost Fair on the River Thames c.1683, by Thomas Wyke, engraved by James Stow, public domain

A YouTube recommendation this morning took me to my favourite fundamentalist Christian news channel where Rick Wiles and his henchmen told me all I wanted to know about the coming Mini Ice Age. It is going to arrive sooner than some have predicted and will last a lot longer, maybe over 300 years. Take THAT global warming.

I have been in the “we are toast” camp for the past decade and hoping to reach my eightieth year – and so be one of Dr Guy McPherson’s last men on earth. Our somewhat rude and primitive forebears weathered the last Maunder Minimum without much trouble so, perhaps mankind is saved and the Sixth Extinction will be stopped in its grievous tracks.

Rick informs us, sincerely if maybe not reliably, that the Earth’s thermostat will be turned right down in the winter of 2019/20. Even less time to wait than for human extinction in 2026.

In our post-truth world, the meeja may be no more truthful about the coming Big Freeze than about Brexit but there is one way of checking which way the wind is really blowing. Find a PWS near you on Weather Underground and log the temperatures and precipitation for each and every day. It won’t take many minutes out of your week and, for as long as there is still electricity you will be fairly certain which side is barking mad – the Warmists or the Coldists.

I had already chosen ten stations to follow, five in each hemisphere, hoping to detect the temperature rise forecast by the UK Met Office yesterday. Now I expect all my graphs to head south, so to speak. The Coldists are very sure of themselves. Flat Earthers too, come to think of it.

Here is a brief introduction to the subject. The TruNews bulletin will take a chunk out of your day if you watch it all.

Weather Eye, September

The extreme weather expected at the beginning of September arrived and caused great damage. First Irma and then Maria devastated islands in the Caribbean. Barbuda had to be evacuated and Puerto Rico may not be able to grow any food for many months.

In other and far-flung parts, Brazil is experiencing an abnormally extreme dry season. Australia just experienced its hottest winter on record. In Teruel, Spain, thunderstorms forming in a much warmer than normal atmosphere dumped half a meter of hail. Antarctic sea ice is hitting record lows after being buffeted by warm winds on at least two sides. And in Guatemala, Mexico, Poland, the Congo, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, India and Oklahoma, there have been extreme or record floods.

Robert Scribbler

Weather-wise here on the Yorkshire coast all is relatively calm and quiet. In the face of catastrophes elsewhere, I have lost interest in offering more insignificant stats and graphs in this space. (For the record, it was 2.04ºC cooler than September 2016 and 22.5mm wetter.)

AtlanticStormsThere have been suggestions that Maria and Lee might hook up and batter the British Isles soon. Today at 1pm the Atlantic had a lopsided grin on Ventusky – with little sign of the nose (ex-Maria) and left eye (ex-Lee) merging to form Storm Brian tomorrow.  And, of course, in Yorkshire, we are not expecting devastating earthquakes or erupting volcanoes anytime soon.

On the certainly man-made (not a hoax) troubles front, we continue to suffer from the after-effects of our referendum and wait anxiously to see what happens if the American military gets to play with its people-destroying toys on a bigger stage than Syria.

What was the weather like in these parts 109 years ago? The Scarborough Mercury of 2nd October 1908 tells us in Filey News: Events of the Week.

The last few days have been charming, indeed the weather has been almost too fine for the time of year. Regret has been expressed however, at Filey, as well as at other places, that practically all the visitors had gone. Had they only stayed what a glorious time they would have had!   The fine weather, however, has been one of the unexpected things which we are told invariably happen. Filey Bay, with its fine expanse of sea, looked charming yesterday, and one could imagine nothing better on such a day, than to be on the sea in a coble, fishing. Yet, fine as the day was yesterday the early morning had been foggy, and only a short distance from Filey a large Glasgow steamer had gone ashore. It was the Dunstaffage (sic), bound from Sunderland to Oporto with coal, and it went ashore on the rocks off Dyke End, near Speeton, between Filey and Flamborough. The vessel was so badly holed that it was feared it would become a total wreck. Not far from the place, the Mazeppa went ashore some time ago, and whilst cobles From Filey and Flamborough put off to the assistance of the Dunstaffage shortly after day-break, the Sunderland salvage tug, the Prince of Wales, which was in attendance on the Mazeppa also went alongside, and took off her crew.

The stricken vessel, the SS Dunstaffnage, was presumably named after the castle near Oban, built in the 13th century by ‘King of the Isles’ Duncan MacDougall, during the Scotland v Norway battle for control of the Hebrides. The newspaper’s suggestion that the ship ran aground near Speeton is misleading. Dyke End must surely refer to Danes Dyke, the northern end of which is about three miles east of Speeton Cliffs. Go to Wreck Site for photographs and more information about Dunstaffnage and Mazeppa.

In the lightest of drizzles this morning I walked to the subject of Today’s Image to pluck a leaf for identification purposes.

 

WhitePoplarLeaf
White poplar Populus alba

 

 

Weather Eye, August

Laf REDUX has completed its first meteorological season so I can offer Summer graphs for the Yorkshire coast; data from the INORTHYO14 PWS. (I noticed this morning that Filey now has a Weather Underground personal weather station reporting. It could be interesting to compare its numbers with those from 30 miles up the coast.)

June this year flamed for the first few days and then settled into a pattern of seemingly cooler days than their equivalents last year. It was no thanks to August that the summer ended 0.32ºC warmer than last year.

2017SummerHIGHcf2016

2017OngoAUGHighCF2016

So, August was just under a degree centigrade cooler than last year. (The rather pointless trend line indicates it became ever so slightly warmer as time passed.) The month was 1.19ºC warmer than the 1979-2000 baseline average and the Summer 2.04 ºC above baseline, a figure that should ring a bell. (But the Yorkshire coast isn’t the globe so perhaps there is nothing to be concerned about.)

The Summer was markedly wetter than last year with 62.6 mm more rain falling on Whitby. August 2017 had a dampness about it that didn’t go well with the cooler temperatures and yet it ended up a couple of mils drier than last year. It seems almost obscene to talk about these pitiful amounts when Harvey has brought such misery to Texas (and Nashville as I write this). And nobody in its path can be looking forward to meeting Irma.

2017SummerPrecipCF2016

PrecipAUG2017cf2016

The wettest day of the summer doesn’t really need highlighting, June 28th saw 27.4mm fall. It wasn’t nearly enough. The meteorological year to date is drier by 177mm compared to last year, and 0.7ºC warmer heading into Autumn.

 

IrmaSEP6projectedGFS
Irma’s position on 6th September as projected by the GFS model, screenshot Ventusky