Northern Spring, Southern Autumn

Two of my five northern hemisphere weather stations (Mumbai and Washington DC) showed a warming trend this Spring but only one southern station (Sydney) cooled as Autumn progressed.

The northern spring began with a burst of warmth, whilst the southern autumn experienced a cold start. Roles reversed in May with the north decidedly chilly and the south unseasonably warm. The effect on the meteorological year’s second quarter Chart is clear to see.

NHspringSHautumnMean

At the end of the second quarter, the Ten Stations averaged 1.24℃ above Pre-Industrial. As my interpretation of Pre-Industrial is 0.85℃ above the Ten Year average for the stations (2008/9 to 2017/18), Spring/Autumn this year was 0.39℃ warmer than the previous decade average. Note, the north broke through the Paris Accord limit on seven days and the south will reach 1.5℃ soon unless there’s a change in the weather.

With the 10 Stations combined showing a warming trend, it seems fair to suggest the Grand Solar Minimum hasn’t kicked in yet.

In India, daily maximum temperatures have risen above 50℃ in places recently. Arctic sea ice is melting early but heavy May snowfalls in the north have mocked “global warmists”. So much rain has fallen in the United States that millions of acres will not be planted at all this year. Expect news of food shortages and food price rises.

The koala bear is now “functionally extinct”. The critters have been around for 200 million years. Wise apes have taken just a few hundred years to ensure their demise, sometime soon.

What Desmond Morris used to call “Manwatching” (now, I suppose, “Person watching”) continues to be an entertaining pastime. Lucy Brown is an accomplished observer and recorder of persons. Her vision of the recent Trump Protest in London indicates that humans may swiftly follow koalas into oblivion.

Insufficient Rebellion

I have been crunching temperature data for the last couple of days and drafting a post with a provisional title, This Sporting Weather. Temperature tables that mimic those of football teams in premier leagues might be of some interest, I thought.

Nineteen weeks into the season (meteorological year 2018/19), the contenders for the title of Warmest Place in my Ten Team Weather League have settled to such an extent that it will be a surprise if the current leader is overtaken.

Koltsovo (Novosibirsk) will be a worthy winner. As noted in an earlier post, it is the coldest of the ten stations I’m monitoring, but returning the greatest increase of average daily temperature above my chosen Pre-Industrial Baseline. It is also notable for being located in one of Climate Action Tracker’s Critically Insufficient countries.

After the first week of matches, Koltsovo was third in the table but went top the following week and has remained there until now.

Buenos Aires and Mumbai have been fighting it out for weeks for the privilege of propping up the table. (But remember, Cold is Good.) At week 19, Mumbai is bottom and this is appropriate too because India is the only one of my ten representative countries that CAT classifies as 2°C Compatible. (Buenos Aires is clearly overperforming because Argentina is considered to be ‘Highly Insufficient’.)

The other seven stations have jostled a bit for a few weeks but their positions are unlikely to change much from now to the end of the year. Last week all ten occupied the positions they held the previous week.

Met18TablePos

A station receives ten points for being Warmest of the Week, down to one point for Coldest (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline).

Met18TableTEMP

The temperature colour codes (°C) should be self-explanatory with green and blue together equating to CAT’s ‘1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible’ classification.

Italy is the only country of my ten not judged by CAT. At week 19, Rome’s running Mean daily temperature is 0.77°C above Pre-Industrial and so could be Paris Compatible. The next table shows the current Mean temperatures for the year to date, (running averages).

Met19TableTempRUN

The Ten Station average, a rough proxy for “Global”, is 0.35°C above the temperature the planet has warmed since “Pre-Industrial”. This could be an indication that the 0.85°C data point I estimated for this increase is ‘insufficient’.

Now for some Rebellion.

Just Have a Think #50 puts climate-induced civil disobedience into context and gives more information about the Action Tracker.

Radio news today briefly tells of a hundred or more rebels being arrested.  I hope the inconvenience they are causing thousands in London will make people think about the extinction of all life on Earth. Sadly, judging by the amount of air time devoted today, people will be far more exercised about the fire in a cathedral. Perhaps a whole planet burning up is too much to take on board.

Weather is trying to tell us something by continuing to play dirty. One of its worst fouls recently – Arctic sea ice extent is at a record low, according to some observers.

AprilArcticSeaIce
Grabbed from Seamorerocks

Innocently Violent, a 56-minute climate change documentary, appeared in my YT recommendations a few days ago – practical self-sufficiency near the edge of extinction. Not for everyone but I was warmed by it!

Cool Runnings

In March, the warmest of my five Northern Hemisphere weather stations, Chhatrapati Shivaji International (Mumbai), recorded an average mean daily temperature of 27.71°C. The coldest station, Koltsovo, returned minus 1.88°C.

You may recall that I calculated a 10 Year Daily Average temperature for all ten weather stations using Weather Underground data for meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18. These daily figures can be readily aggregated to give weekly, monthly and seasonal averages, and finally annual results.

After some consideration, I decided that global temperature had risen by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – when mankind began emitting way more “greenhouse gases” into the air than before. It doesn’t really matter when industrial activity took off. I think I pinned it to 1709 or thereabouts. Neither is the 0.85°C figure critical. I recently heard a scientist acknowledge a rise of 1.0°C since 1880 – and he was from the school of carbon dioxide being “plant food”, playing no part whatsoever in the temperature rise. (See Jeff Masters for a different view of CO2.)

2019MARCHcf10yrWhatever, Mumbai last month recorded the greatest amount of cooling when compared to its 10 Year Average. And cold Koltsovo warmed the most. Go figure.

Now, please consider the Paris Agreement (or Accord) and add 0.85 degrees to the table figures. Quite by chance, the Northern Hemisphere is bang on the 1.5°C “red line” we should strive not to cross. And Koltsovo is beyond twice as hot as the 2°C figure that signifies the beginning of the end for humanity. It is fortunate that Koltsovo isn’t the globe.

For the following histogram, I have ordered the ten stations, hemispheres and globe so that March progresses from cool to warm when compared with the Pre-Industrial Baseline.

 

2019MARCHcfP-I

So, what has happened to Koltsovo since the beginning of this meteorological year? At the end of winter, the average daily MEAN temperature was 2.2°C above Pre-Industrial. March warmth has pushed the Koltsovo running average up to 2.75°C (2.34°C warmer than at the end of December) and nudged the Northern Hemisphere up from just 0.1°C warming since December 31st to 0.2 degrees. (Mumbai, Rome, Shanghai and Washington all conspired to bring down the North’s fever.)

Mainly thanks to a hot January in Rio, Sydney and Wellington, the Southern Hemisphere is currently at 0.32°C above Pre-Industrial and the Globe at +0.26 degrees.

There is nothing to fear. This meteorological year had a one in two chance of being warmer than the 10 Year Average. Four months in, it is warmer. By the end of November, it could well be cooler.

Anomalous warmth at the beginning of the met year in several of the 10 stations has guaranteed that both hemispheres are now showing a cooling trend. It is very small, only minus 0.01°C every two or three weeks (in the last two months or so).

There are, however, some worryingly hot spots on the planet – India (though not Mumbai) and the Arctic.

This is today’s picture of Arctic temperature anomalies from Climate Reanalyzer. Over the next ten days, the excess heat is forecast to drop from +6.8°C to +3.4°C.

April3_ArcticAnomaly_CR_grab

 

Brexit

Good luck to Ukraine if they vote in a Comedian President. The UK has over 600 jokers in Parliament, all risible and none funny. The Prime Minister of the regime and the “Leader” of the main opposition party are too daft to laugh at. I can’t say it better than Jeff Taylor and Carl Benjamin.

 

Changing Stations

A couple of the ten Weather Stations I have been monitoring have been renamed – but their data continue to be reported. Beijing Capital, though, seems to have ‘gone dark’ and a couple of other stations in the city don’t have historical data back to December 2008. I’ve had to fly south to Shanghai to acquire replacement figures.

Shanghai experienced the same warm start to the meteorological year as Beijing and suffered the first of the big freezes. But it ended the season ‘above Paris’ (1.57°C) whereas Beijing had increased just 0.01 degree above the estimated 0.85°C rise since the Industrial Age began.

Beijing&ShanghaiWinter

I’ll report on the first month of the Northern Spring and Southern Autumn in a few days time. Solar Minimumists are reporting that the Little Ice Age is definitely underway but my Ten Weather Stations are not yet feeling a persistent chill. Arctic amplification, on the other hand, is in overdrive at the moment with temperatures well above normal in Alaska.

Koltsovo Station

I wrote yesterday that this was the warmest of my ten stations. It was actually the coldest – but I had its temperature anomaly in mind. On six days last month, the average temperature was over 10°C above the Pre-Industrial baseline. It is also the station with the greatest fluctuations of temperature from one day to the next.

KoltsovoJAN2019

Here’s a graph of Sydney data (Kingsford Smith station) for comparison.

SydneyJAN2019

Last month was Australia’s hottest January for over a hundred years, “and there is no relief in sight for the months ahead”.

Still Getting Warmer

In the first two months of this meteorological year at my ten chosen weather stations, there were six instances of cooler temperatures and 14 warmer.

The five Northern Hemisphere Stations were, overall, 1.01°C warmer than the Ten Year Average (2008/9 to 20017/18).

The five Southern Hemisphere Stations were 1.18°C warmer.

“The literature” about present temperatures suggests varying amounts of global warmth above a notional Pre-Industrial Baseline. Initially, I was going to go for a low estimate (0.6°C) but decided on the middling 0.85°C instead.  NASA is currently suggesting the world has warmed 0.9°C since 1880 so I am being conservative.

So, I have set my Pre-industrial Baseline at 0.85°C above the TenYear Average. The figure is calculated daily for graphing purposes. I have added 1.5°C to give the Paris Accord limit we should attempt to stay below if we are to avoid even more extreme weather events than those recently experienced.

At the 10 Weather Stations in the last two months, the Average Daily Temperatures are 0.25°C above the 10 Year running average figure, leaving us just 0.4°C “to play with” before the Paris Accord limit is passed.

There is no way of telling how representative my chosen Weather Stations are, among the thousands reporting to Weather Underground. It doesn’t seem to matter though. Over the next year or two, the trend to either “runaway greenhouse” or Grand Solar Minimum chill must, surely, become apparent.

Right now the record cold temperatures in the US Midwest are causing a stir. The extreme warming that is forecast to soon follow there will keep tongues wagging. In the southern hemisphere, Australia’s heatwaves are crossing the Tasman and washing over New Zealand.

The warmest of my 10 Stations was Koltsovo, last month, registering 3.65°C above Pre-Industrial. If the Siberian experience is replicated everywhere for a whole year we are all toast.

NorthHemDecJan

SouthernHemDecJan

GlobalDecJan